Electricity20 October 2026"By 2030, AI will consume as much as Japan"
The comparison comes from the International Energy Agency. It is correct, with 2 caveats: it covers all data centres, not AI alone, and it is one scenario among several.
Contents
Where the figure comes from
In April 2025, the IEA published "Energy and AI": in its reference scenario, the world's data centres would consume 945 TWh in 2030, a little more than Japan today. Its April 2026 update confirms the trajectory, with 485 TWh in 2025 and a range of 833 to 1,008 TWh for 2030 depending on the scenario.
ElectricityData centre electricity
Global electricity consumption, by region, in terawatt-hours a year · 2024 (estimate) and 2030 (reference scenario)
Source: IEA, Energy and AI, April 2025, rounded values · projetcelsius.com/en/ai · CC BY 4.0
What the figure counts
The 945 TWh cover all data centres, excluding cryptocurrencies: cloud, storage, online services, and AI. AI-specialised centres, those that line up GPU servers to train and run models, increased their consumption by 50% in 2025; the IEA expects them to reach about 465 TWh in 2030, half of the total.
The other projections
The Shift Project projects 1,500 TWh for all data centres, cryptocurrencies included, by extrapolating capacity announcements. GreenIT projects 1,169 TWh for AI alone, assuming servers in continuous use at 69%. The IEA, for its part, applies a completion rate to announced projects, as well as efficiency gains.
ElectricityData centre electricity consumption in 2030, according to 3 studies
Electricity consumption of data centres in 2030, in TWh per year, projection published by each study · 2023 to 2030
Source: IEA, 2026; The Shift Project, 2025; GreenIT, 2026 · projetcelsius.com/en/ai · CC BY 4.0
At global scale and at national scale
Set against the 33,600 TWh of global demand expected in 2030, the 945 TWh make up 2.8%. Their increase, about 460 TWh, represents less than 10% of the global rise in electricity demand, less than air conditioning or electric cars. The pressure lies elsewhere: in Ireland, data centres already use 23% of the country's electricity.
ElectricityData centres' share of electricity
Share of national electricity consumption, latest published year · 2023 to 2025, depending on the country
Source: CSO; CBS; LBNL; IEA; RTE, Projet Celsius calculation · projetcelsius.com/en/ai · CC BY 4.0
To cite this figure correctly: "data centres, all uses, would consume about 945 TWh in 2030 according to the IEA's reference scenario".
Sources
6 documents
- IEA, Energy and AI2025entry 1
- IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI2026entry 2
- IEA, Electricity 20262026entry 3
- The Shift Project, Intelligence artificielle, données, calculs : quelles infrastructures dans un monde décarboné ?2025entry 4
- GreenIT, Impacts environnementaux et sanitaires de l'intelligence artificielle dans le monde en 2025 et 20302026entry 6
- Central Statistics Office (Ireland), Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 20252026entry 10
Every figure was read in its source; the hub's methodology is described in Methodology and sources.
AI Impact, Projet Celsius, "By 2030, AI will consume as much as Japan", 20 October 2026. https://projetcelsius.com/en/ai/analyses/ai-as-much-as-japan-by-2030/
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