Source: IEA, 2026; The Shift Project, 2025; GreenIT, 2026. projetcelsius.com/en/ai · CC BY 4.0
The analysis
The 3 studies do not count the same thing: the IEA takes all data centres excluding cryptocurrencies, the Shift Project adds them, GreenIT keeps only AI.
GreenIT projects more for AI alone than the IEA for all data centres: the gap comes mainly from the assumed utilisation rate of servers, 69 % continuously.
Extrapolated capacity announcements (Shift Project), delivery rates and efficiency gains (IEA): a gap of 1 to 1.6 in 2030.
The figures
IEA: a range of 833 to 1,008 TWh, around 945 TWh in its base scenario.
Shift Project: a range of 1,250 to 1,500 TWh, with no central value.
GreenIT: 1,169 TWh, for AI alone.IEAall data centres, excluding cryptocurrencies485 in 2025 → 833 to 1,008Shift Projectcryptocurrencies included530 in 2023 → 1,250 to 1,500GreenITAI alone174 in 2025 → 1,169TWh per year: the dot marks the starting point of each study, the bar or range its projection for 2030 · IEA, The Shift Project, GreenIT
Assumptions
Scenarios: none claims to predict 2030.
GreenIT starting point: 174 TWh in 2025, the high estimate for AI; Schneider Electric gives 100.
An error, a source to add, a methodology question, a press request: write to us. Guillaume Pakula, Clément Reynaud, Sébastien Pierfederici and Alexandre Veilly will reply.
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