Is AI reviving gas, or financing low-carbon electricity?

In September 2024, Microsoft signs for 20 years the electricity of a Three Mile Island reactor that its operator is going to restart. In August 2025, the Louisiana energy commission approves 3 gas plants to supply Meta's campus at Richland Parish. Each of these 2 announcements serves as an example for an opposing thesis: AI would finance nuclear and renewables, or it would revive gas.

Our analysis on the electricity shortage recalls the global assessment of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2030, about 340 TWh of gas for data centres and 360 of renewables, to which nearly 120 TWh of nuclear is added. Here we look at where each addition takes place, at what time, and what the announced contracts really bring.

The IEA details where the additional electricity for data centres will come from between 2024 and 2030. In the United States, where gas already supplies more than 40% of their electricity, it is the main source added, with more than 130 TWh, ahead of renewables, 110 TWh. In China, where coal supplies about 70%, coal and renewables each add about 90 TWh. In Europe, renewables and nuclear are to supply most of the addition, and 85% of data centre electricity in 2030.

The gap comes down to the starting grid and to lead times. A reactor or a high-voltage line is counted in years; in the large European hubs, connecting a data centre takes 7 to 10 years on average according to the think tank Ember. Where the grid does not keep up, the operator generates on site. In October 2026, the IEA lists about 210 GW of gas plants planned to supply data centres directly, 190 GW of them at the proposal stage and 17 GW under construction, more than 95% in the United States. The IEA estimates that about 15 to 27 GW of on-site gas could supply data centres in 2030, and doubts that this route is faster at scale, for lack of turbines.

For the climate, a low-carbon contract counts through the new production it brings into being. A restarted reactor or a new reactor adds some; a contract on an existing plant that was already producing for the grid takes the same amount away from other consumers, unless it prevents its closure. The operators' large nuclear contracts fall into these 3 cases.

Of the 5 American nuclear contracts in the table, 3 add new production, 1 keeps running a plant that its operator said was threatened with closure, 1 concerns existing production; none delivers before 2027. Small reactors illustrate the gap between announcement and production: the IEA counts about 45 GW of agreements with data centres at the end of 2025, memoranda of understanding and letters of intent, for first projects expected around 2030. On-site turbines are already running, in Memphis since 2025; but delivery times for large turbines reach 5 years or more according to the IEA.

Purchases of low-carbon electricity by contract are massive. Companies announced 55.9 GW of clean electricity contracts in 2025 according to BloombergNEF, of which 49% by Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Google says it signed more than 12 GW of new clean electricity in 2025; Microsoft and Brookfield concluded a framework in 2024 for about 10.5 GW of new renewable capacity.

These contracts are counted over the year: Microsoft, Meta and Amazon say they cover 100% of their annual consumption with renewable electricity, without publishing, in their latest report, an hourly share for all of their consumption. Google is the only one of the 4 to publish this share: in 2025, carbon-free electricity covered about 65% of the consumption of its data centres and offices hour by hour, against 66% in 2024, despite consumption rising by 37%. The IEA sums it up: electricity bought by contract is often neither produced near the data centres nor when they need it, and the grid often covers it with other sources, such as gas or coal. Our chart of contracts and the grid shows this same gap in emissions, at Meta, Google and Microsoft.

In France, the grid already supplies low-carbon electricity, and data centre contracts concern the existing fleet. Data4 is the first data centre operator in France to sign a nuclear production allocation contract with EDF: 40 MW for 12 years, about 230 GWh per year from 2026. This contract does not add any production; it fixes the price and the origin of a share of existing production. The French question concerns the grid and its grid connections, which is addressed by our viewpoint on hosting data centres.